Published: 1 July 2025, 13:54 am

Cancer cases in South Africa are rising sharply, with projections suggesting annual diagnoses could reach 120,000 within the next five years—double the number recorded in 2019. Health experts are sounding the alarm, warning that cancer is under-reported—potentially by as much as 40%—and that it remains overlooked as a national health priority, despite increasing mortality rates and significant financial implications for the healthcare system.

Data from the National Cancer Registry (NCR) reveals that cancer-related deaths rose by 29% between 2008 and 2018, even as overall mortality declined by 24%. Prostate, breast, cervical, colorectal, and lung cancers carry the highest disease burden.¹ Breast cancer cases rose from 7,376 in 2011 to 11,192 in 2023, while prostate cancer cases increased to nearly 11,000 in the same year.

Experts attribute the rise in cancer incidence to South Africa’s ageing population, shifting lifestyles (including increased smoking and alcohol use), and a high prevalence of HIV-linked cancers.

Disparities in access to diagnostic services further compound the crisis, particularly among black men, who are more likely to present at later stages due to limited screening. Despite serving only 16% of the population, the private sector holds 80% of the country’s oncology infrastructure and workforce.

According to the Cancer Alliance’s 2021 Percept Study, high-risk cancer cases are projected to rise from 75,000 in 2019 to over 150,000 by 2030.² Cancer Alliance Director Salome Meyer warns that the financial burden on the public sector could exceed R75 billion, calling cancer care “already in the emergency room.”

The economic toll is expected to grow, affecting productivity and pushing up medical aid premiums.

“Cancer is the new HIV,” Meyer told News24. “Without urgent, coordinated investment in cancer care, South Africa’s already stretched health system could face collapse.”