The U.S. is falling behind globally in health progress, as highlighted in a recent study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) published in The Lancet. 

The analysis predicts only modest increases in U.S. life expectancy (LE) from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years by 2050, causing its global ranking to drop from 49th in 2022 to 66th among 204 countries. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) is expected to decline even further, from 80th to 108th globally during the same period, with women disproportionately affected.

Rising obesity and overweight rates are identified as critical drivers of this decline, with projections indicating over 260 million affected Americans by 2050. While mortality rates from chronic diseases such as ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes have improved since 1990, the U.S. faces soaring drug use-related deaths. These have increased by 878% between 1990 and 2021 and are expected to grow further, leaving the U.S. with the highest drug-related mortality rate globally.

State-level disparities reflect the crisis. New York, projected to have the highest LE in the U.S. by 2050, will still drop in global rankings, while Hawaii, which ranked 4th globally in 1990, is expected to fall to 43rd by 2050.

IHME warns that tackling obesity, high blood sugar, and smoking could save millions of lives but may not be sufficient to restore U.S. global rankings. Comprehensive reforms, including universal health coverage and preventive care, are essential to reversing the decline and mitigating the economic toll of poor health outcomes.

South Africa, facing its own public health challenges, must take note. In 2021, life expectancy at birth was 59.3 years for males and 64.6 years for females, with an infant mortality rate of 24.1 per 1,000 live births. While South Africa’s figures are lower than U.S. levels, the U.S.’s trajectory offers a cautionary tale: rising obesity, inequality, and inadequate preventive care could exacerbate public health challenges if not addressed

Original Study

GBD 2021 US Burden of Disease Collaborators (2024). The burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors by state in the USA, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet (London, England), 404(10469), 2314–2340. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01446-6
 

This story was compiled from various resources, including:

Increases in US life expectancy forecasted to stall by 2050, poorer health expected to cause nation’s global ranking to drop. Available at: https://www.healthdata.org/news-events/newsroom/news-releases/increases-us-life-expectancy-forecasted-stall-2050-poorer-health. Published Dec. 5, 2024. Accessed Dec. 5, 2024.

Government of South Africa. (n.d.)|  People of South Africa. Retrieved December 9, 2024, from https://www.gov.za/about-sa/people-south-africa
 

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