In Everything Is Predictable, acclaimed science writer Tom Chivers offers a captivating exploration of Bayes’s theorem and its profound influence across medicine, law, artificial intelligence, and beyond. 

Developed in the 18th century by Thomas Bayes, an English minister and amateur mathematician, this statistical theorem estimates the probability of a hypothesis by integrating new evidence with prior knowledge. It explains phenomena like why a cancer test can appear 99% accurate yet still result in most positive cases being false and highlights the critical importance of context in evaluating data.

Chivers takes readers on an engaging journey, blending biography, science, and intellectual history. He delves into Bayes’s life and the theorem’s historical applications, from improving medical diagnoses to reshaping legal reasoning. 
Bayes’s focus on integrating new information with existing beliefs sheds light on real-world dilemmas, such as vaccine skepticism and decision-making under uncertainty.

Through lucid prose and relatable examples, Chivers demonstrates how this theorem reveals insights into modern life, including why contestants in Let’s Make a Deal should switch their choices and how it underpins technologies like artificial intelligence. He also ventures into surprising areas like optical illusions, classical conditioning, and evolution, making probability theory accessible and engaging.
Celebrated as “witty” and “perspective-shifting,” Everything Is Predictable invites readers to embrace the power of Bayes’s theorem in navigating uncertainty, challenging conventional wisdom, and understanding our complex world. This mathematical romp is a must-read for anyone intrigued by the intersection of statistics, logic, and the human experience.